The Minimizer

2011-10-02

About population growth

Filed under: Uncategorized — theminimizer @ 19:43

I have made a population growth model, with the following rules:

  • Each man marries exactly four wives.
  • The man marries his wives at the age of 18, 20, 22 and 24.
  • The wives are all 18 years old when they marry.
  • Each woman gives birth to exactly eight children.
  • The children are born at their mother’s age 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33.
  • All new partners are imported from abroad.

Starting with one single boy being born in the year of 2000, we get the result below.

Explanation:

  • Each line contains year, persons added during the year and accumulation since 2000.
  • In 2000 the boy is born
  • In 2018 he marries his first wife
  • In 2019 their first child is born
  • In 2020 he marries his second wife
  • In 2021 both his wifes delivers one child each
  • In 2038 at the age of 38 he will become grandfather
  • In total he will have 32 children and 1024 grandchildren
After 100 years, this single man has imported and given birth to 74118 persons.
Considering an average life span of 80 years, four of these are dead at he end of the century, leaving 74114 persons alive at the turn of the century.
The growth per year is around 12%. This is a very high number, considering a population going double in twenty years, equals a yearly growth at only 3.5%.
This process is starting to happen in some parts of Europe. If there is a mastermind or not behind this process is not important, the result is the same.
BBC
Snaphanen
Daily Mail
Fertility Rates by Country
2000 1 1
2018 1 2
2019 1 3
2020 1 4
2021 2 6
2022 1 7
2023 3 10
2024 1 11
2025 4 15
2027 4 19
2029 4 23
2031 4 27
2033 4 31
2035 3 34
2037 3 37
2038 1 38
2039 4 42
2040 3 45
2041 6 51
2042 8 59
2043 10 69
2044 16 85
2045 13 98
2046 27 125
2047 15 140
2048 40 180
2049 16 196
2050 54 250
2051 16 266
2052 68 334
2053 15 349
2054 80 429
2055 13 442
2056 91 533
2057 11 544
2058 98 642
2059 10 652
2060 104 756
2061 17 773
2062 112 885
2063 37 922
2064 126 1048
2065 80 1128
2066 149 1277
2067 154 1431
2068 181 1612
2069 268 1880
2070 220 2100
2071 426 2526
2072 261 2787
2073 630 3417
2074 302 3719
2075 877 4596
2076 337 4933
2077 1156 6089
2078 362 6451
2079 1457 7908
2080 381 8289
2081 1764 10053
2082 407 10460
2083 2072 12532
2084 480 13012
2085 2381 15393
2086 661 16054
2087 2710 18764
2088 1047 19811
2089 3081 22892
2090 1753 24645
2091 3522 28167
2092 2925 31092
2093 4056 35148
2094 4709 39857
2095 4692 44549
2096 7248 51797
2097 5427 57224
2098 10653 67877
2099 6241 74118
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7 Comments »

  1. According to your theory, each born child will import 8 women if it is a boy, and if it is a girl, she will import 1 man, which in his turn will import 7 women. So for each imported man, 15 women are imported. In countries where polygamy is practiced, there is probably already a shortage of women. If the married men use their right to marry several women, then a large part of the population will never have the chance to have a sexual relation, at least not with a woman. If, in addition to this, other countries will import women from this country, at the rate mentioned earlier, then this will increase the shortage of women in these countries. Obviously this will be very bad for most of the men there. If they had a poll vote regarding polygamy, a large part of the male population would chose ‘no’ because it forces them to live their lives without any relation with a woman.

    Comment by Bertil — 2011-10-02 @ 20:50 | Reply

    • Actually each son imports four girls and each daughter imports one husband, which in turn imports another three girls.
      This is not a big problem in these countries today, as very few males can afford this luxury.

      On the other hand, in welfare states like England and Sweden, the governments pay for this service, and the girls and boys
      in the poorer countries stand in long lines, to be able to come to Europe and live like welfare queens.
      Producing fifty millions and sending them to Europe in fifty years, will be no problem at all,
      as these countries have 1.5 billion people and a tremendously high fertility rate. E.g. Egypt has had a 3.5% yearly growth for the last twenty years.
      3.5% of 1.5 billion is 52 millions.

      Comment by theminimizer — 2011-10-02 @ 21:06 | Reply

  2. One more comment: It would be interesting to have statistics regarding how frequent polygamy is in countries where it is allowed. Is it so common that a large part of the male population will have to live their lives alone?

    Comment by Bertil — 2011-10-02 @ 20:53 | Reply

    • As I said in my earlier comment:

      This is not a big problem in these countries today, as very few males can afford this luxury.

      Comment by theminimizer — 2011-10-02 @ 21:08 | Reply

  3. These number as a theoretical exercise doesn’t make much sense. The assumptions made are just ridiculous. The point you want to make here is Muslims taking over Europe. And then you want to extrapolate and say that even if we take just 1% of this is would be disastrous for the Swedish culture etc. And that would prove nothing.

    A more interesting study would be how things work in practice. How many people live in polygamist relationships in Europe? How quick is the immigration rate? How quick is the birth rate? How quick is the assimilation rate? How many Muslims comply with the ideology of the referred mastermind or no mastermind? How many Muslims comply with Western values? But of course these questions are much more difficult. You have to take into account reality and make definitions. When is someone assimilated into Western values?

    Another interesting question would be what can be done with the degradation of the Western values. What should be done with the void that occupies the Western soul now that God left it empty? In many ways it is understandable that Muslim intellectuals don’t want to assimilate with the empty, materialistic, secular, self-absorbed, alcohol-intensive culture we live in. Maybe a Muslim spiritual infusion could create a more whole Western man, in the best of all worlds?

    Comment by Kasper — 2011-10-02 @ 22:06 | Reply

    • Sorry for my simplistic model. Of course the reality is more complex. But, I don’t have the data, so I have to make assumptions. Eight children per woman is high, but not unreasonable. In many countries the number is well above six. Not every muslim has four wives. That’s right, but there is nothing preventing it. If the welfare state pumps money into these families, I think it’s perfectly reasonable for them to get as many kids as possible. I dont’ blame the muslims, I blame the welfare state, in combination with almost free immigration. An impossible combination, one of them has to go.

      I also would like to remind you about what several arab leaders has told us. They will conquer Europe not with Kalashnikovs, but with the wombs of their (and our) women. Ghaddafi said this, so did Erdogan. Their wombs are like ATMs. Links are available to back this up, or you could just use one of the internetz.

      “A more interesting study would be how things work in practice. How many people live in polygamist relationships in Europe? How quick is the immigration rate? How quick is the birth rate? How quick is the assimilation rate? How many Muslims comply with the ideology of the referred mastermind or no mastermind? How many Muslims comply with Western values? But of course these questions are much more difficult. You have to take into account reality and make definitions. When is someone assimilated into Western values?”

      – I’m sorry, but it is not possible to talk about these matters. These issues are either to soft to make sense or not acceptable in the discussion climate of today.

      “Another interesting question would be what can be done with the degradation of the Western values. What should be done with the void that occupies the Western soul now that God left it empty? In many ways it is understandable that Muslim intellectuals don’t want to assimilate with the empty, materialistic, secular, self-absorbed, alcohol-intensive culture we live in. Maybe a Muslim spiritual infusion could create a more whole Western man, in the best of all worlds?”

      – So, why are they coming to Europe, if our culture is that bad?

      If you have suggestions for improvement of my model, please go ahead!

      Comment by theminimizer — 2011-10-02 @ 22:36 | Reply

  4. Some quotes:

    In 1974, former Algerian President Houari Boumedienne warned Europe in a speech at the UN : “One day, millions of men will leave the Southern Hemisphere to go to the Northern Hemisphere. And they will not go there as friends. Because they will go there to conquer it. And they will conquer it with their sons. The wombs of our women will give us victory.”

    Radical Islam is conquering Belgium and Europe by massive immigration and high birthrates. Libya’s Muammar Gadaffi states it this way:
    “We have 50 million Muslims in Europe. They are a sign that Allah will give Islam victory over Europe — without swords, without cannons, without conquest. The 50 million Muslims in Europe will turn Europe Muslim within a few decades. Allah is mobilizing Muslim Turkey to adds that to the European Union. That is an addition of 50 million more Muslims. Then there will be 100 million Muslims in Europe. Albania, which is a Muslim country is already in the EU. Bosnia which is a Muslim country is already in the EU. 50% of the population in those countries are Muslim.” (Al Jazeera television, April 10 2006).

    In a public gathering in 1998, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the ruling Islamist party and current Prime Minister of Turkey, recited: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers…”

    In Muslim tradition, the world is divided into Dar al-Islam, where Muslims rule, and Dar al-Harb, the ‘field of war’ where the infidels live. The presumption is that the duty of jihad will continue, until the entire world either adopts the Muslim faith or submits to Muslim rule.

    Comment by theminimizer — 2011-10-02 @ 23:38 | Reply


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